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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple script. It often serves as a type of apology. Sorry we misjudged your team in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the largest turnaround is handed the prize. In reality, it fuels an annual debate about expectations and whether we're actually honoring superior leadership or just the most shocking surprise.

But this year's competition is profoundly unique. The list of contenders is remarkably strong. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been chaotic, with recent division champions falling away and recent underperformers ascending together. In an typical season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. But in such a wild and thrilling year, he's facing multiple other elite candidates.

Here is how the hypothetical vote could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors love signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the chance to showcase his special talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's prolonged performance. With Johnson, Williams has become more confident, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an attack designed solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady helping of play-action and a innovative passing attack that creates wide receiver receivers everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been there, he's been able to spin magic from nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost each gamble – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has worked. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the organization with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme wizard but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a ordinary season, he would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet the current is not a normal year!

Where his candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. However he comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has engineered a swift resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has nailed the off-field aspects, which was not a certainty after his early public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal staff cocktail of new ideas and experience, he bet on newbies. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. But he has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

After an early strong beginning, there was a risk that the season would go off the rails. A midseason collapse had the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has cooled off after that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him just a single place ahead of peers.

Still