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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a peace deal negotiated with US officials could be completed in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys are expected to submit the terms to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the conflict is not guaranteed, particularly because Russia's lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy noted that the US Congress is expected to consider defense assurances and that a complete package of agreements might be ready “imminently.” He added that, the U.S. would hold consultations with Moscow, leading to high-level meetings as soon as this weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“The plan involves five documents. Several pertain to binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, approved and approved by the United States Congress,” the president commented to the press. He stated that these guarantees would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, US officials did not provide specific details regarding the probable makeup of the security package or what would happen if Moscow sought to capture additional territory after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the United States has no plans to place boots on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European countries said in a unified declaration that troops from a “allied coalition” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting maritime security, including through operating inside its territory.”

However, they did not proposing these measures would constitute guarantees matching Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is scant indication that Russia is anywhere close to agreeing to the kind of arrangement under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Kremlin said it had not seen the specifics of the plans for security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would never accept forces of NATO member states being stationed in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators continues to be the issue of land. One proposal involves Ukraine ceding the areas of the Donbas it still holds, while Ukraine wants to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. You know, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president remarked following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russia would not move forward, with the demilitarised area established as “an open economic area.” Russia has suggested it could use police and national guard units instead of the army in such an area, implying it would still expect to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ is not under the control of Russia. Not legally or in practice do we accept Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” said Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how the two sides will proceed on the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement like a special economic area might be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people approved it in a national vote. The major impediment is likely to be when the plans are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face precisely the situation we are encountering on our plane right now – instability,” said the president, recording the comments as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply additional armaments if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the Americans,” he concluded.