A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."